Degeneration Is Not Always the Gen Z's Fault
Tantan Hermansah
Lecturer of Urban Sociology at UIN Jakarta
The world is aging in a haunting silence. If we carefully dissect current global data, humanity is entering an existential phase known as the “Below Replacement” era. In the 1960s, a woman typically had five children; today, that number has plummeted to a precarious 2.1 or 2.3. In demographic theory, 2.1 is the absolute "replacement level" needed to prevent a population from vanishing.
Yet, the sociological reality is far grimmer: more than half the world and nearly all developed nations have fallen well below this threshold, with some averages hitting a staggering 1.5. This isn't just a seasonal dip; it is a structural shift that will permanently alter the face of civilization.
The Demographic Time Bomb
By 2080, it is predicted that the elderly will outnumber children. We are heading toward a reality where those who pass away simply have no successors.
This is the Demographic Time Bomb. As the fiscal burden of supporting a massive elderly population swells, the shrinking pool of productive workers will cause economic growth to stall. Modern economic engines rely entirely on a steady supply of young labor; without regeneration, that engine faces total seizure.
However, public discourse often points a finger at Gen Z, labeling them as "selfish" or "lazy" for refusing to have children. This narrative is shallow. Their choice is not a result of lifestyle narcissism, but a calculated, rational response to a suffocating reality.
A Calculated Survival
For most Gen Zs, the math simply does not add up. Skyrocketing costs of living and an unattainable housing market have turned the "white picket fence" into a cruel joke. How can one imagine raising a child while trapped in a cycle of predatory rent or living in a van?
Furthermore, as discussed in my previous articles (also read: Why Gen Z's Getting Lazier and Crazier), the Gig Economy has replaced stability with permanent uncertainty. Without retirement security or affordable healthcare, raising a child is viewed as an extreme financial risk. We are seeing a massive shift from "Family Formation" to "Individual Optimization". Gen Z is choosing to save themselves from the economic storm rather than bringing a new life onboard a sinking ship.
The Crisis of Social Reproduction
Sociologically, this represents an acute crisis of social reproduction. Following the thought of Pierre Bourdieu, reproduction is not just biological; it is the transmission of class, culture, and values. When the chain of regeneration breaks, the transmission of the "habitus": the very spirit and understanding of our civilization stops with the older generation.
The logic of Thomas Malthus, who feared overpopulation, has been flipped 180 degrees. Our problem today is not too many humans, but a lack of a successor generation. Gen Z’s refusal to procreate is, in fact, a sharp critique of the world they inherited. They are the ones "stuck with the bill" for the ecological and economic exploitation of previous generations.
Conclusion
A generation without regeneration occurs when the socio-economic system fails to provide the material and psychological requirements for life to continue. Gen Z is asking a devastating question: "Is this life even worth passing on?"
Their extreme decision is the ultimate expression of a total loss of faith in the future. They are choosing not to sacrifice their unborn children to a mode of existence that has no clear end just as they themselves are forced to face a tomorrow that their parents never bothered to design with dignity.
This article was published in Kompas on Monday (4/5/2026). Credit: Maria Kololeeva from Pinterest.